Monday, November 4, 2013

October 2013 Results


October 2013 Results
Present Plan:
I am changing my contributions based on a conversation my wife and I recently had.  I will contribute $900 per month to the trading portfolio, aiming for returns of 10% year after year, with increasing dividend income.  The $500 increase is coming from my 401K, to which I am stopping contributions.   The reason for this?  My wife is Australian, and we are strongly considering moving there in the next 5-10 years.  Because of this, I don't want my money tied up until I'm 65.

At present, my immediate plan is to get my model portfolio in place in the dividend growth part of the portfolio.  I still need to trim to positions and add to others, so I expect to make a few trades near term.  The end of the year will be about preparing for a fresh start going into 2014.  
 
All dividends are currently being reinvested back into the companies paying the dividend. New cash will be used to add to positions or create new ones at $1k increments.

October Commentary:
First the good news - my retirement portfolio closed the month at $200k plus for the first time, thanks to my 401K performance.

That said, this month was rather upsetting for me.  I did not follow my business plan and paid for it sorely.  Amarin, the maker of Vascepa, had their FDA ADCOM meeting, which I thought was a sure thing.  Their drug, basically Omega 3 fish oil purified to 93%+ EPA, was already approved for the Marine indication, and I believe the Anchor recommendation would be a formality.  The ADCOM voted against approving Anchor absent results from their Reduce-It cardiovascular outcomes study.  The stock has tanked from my cost basis of $9.50 to sub-$2.00.  I have essentially lost 80% of my investment here. Now lets be clear - I'm not upset about losing 80% of the AMRN investment, I'm upset that I broke my business plan rule on allocating to speculative names.  The plan caps speculative stocks at 5% total, or 2% at purchase.   I allocated close to 7% to AMRN.  Following my plan would have saved me close to $4k.  At this point, its about damage control for me.  I plan to sell part of AMRN around year end to offset the $8355 I have in realized gains in 2013.
 
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DIVIDEND and PERFORMANCE Highlights:
Portfolio was down (-0.18%) in October, underperforming the S&P by (-4.64%) 
Total dividends for October are $117.97, down 6.72% YoY [more income needed!]
Total dividends for 2013 are $1,842.53. ... up 25.1% YoY through October.
Dividend Raises!
None this month.
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OCTOBER 2013 DIVIDENDS RECEIVED:
TAXABLE ACCOUNT: (Dividends Reinvested)
Philip Morris (PM) ….….… $33.43…..bot 0.391 shs
Occidental (OXY) …...….… $12.99…..bot 0.137 shs
ROTH IRA: (Dividends Reinvested)
MFA Financial (MFA) ….… $71.55…..bot 9.540 shs
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DIVIDEND PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS:
Symbol ….. Shares ... Mkt Value ... Total Divs… Gain/Loss 
AAPL ……. 5.263 .….. 2,751.24 ….  44.61 ……... 17.1%
T     ……..  86.96 .….. 3.147.92 ….  282.97 …….. 38.2%
CVX …….. 21.01 ..…. 2,520.24 ….  147.67 …….. 35.1%
CSX …….. 150.50 .... 3,921.95 ….  126.72 …….. 29.1%
MAT …….. 106.22 …. 4,713.72 ….  419.44 …...   117.1%
MCD …….. 37.99 .….. 3,665.72 ….  427.69 ……. 72.9%
MFA …….. 334.76 ....  2,480.60 …. 226.17 ……   1.5%
OXY …….. 20.44 .….. 1,963.49 ….  38.69 ……...  14.6%
PFE …….. 114.10 .…. 3,500.91 …. 313.57 …….. 88.6%
PM   …….. 35.96 .….. 3,204.58 ….  163.52 …….. 23.4%
QCOM…… 35.18 .….. 2,444.59 ….  12.25 ……..   13.5%
SO   …….. 85.56 .….. 3,500.26 ….  22.84 ……..   (-4.2%)
VOD …….. 84.39 .….. 3,110.30 ….  204.95 …….. 43.4%
WMT …….. 46.99 .….. 3,605.79 ….  234.36 …….. 59.6%
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Dividend Account Value …………....... $44,531.31
GROWTH HOLDINGS:
Symbol ...... Shares …... Mkt Value ….. Gain/Loss 
AAPL  …..…  15.00  …...  7,840.53..…  27.7%
ATRS …..…  4500.00  .... 18,067.50  … 14.8%
AMRN …..…  600.00  .....  990.00  ….  (-82.8%)
PSTI  …..…   800.00  ….. 2,624.00  .....  2.4%
PSTI call ……. 8 ct      ….. 108.39 ……. n/a …. Covered call - yield 4.1% at purch
ACTC  ....…  8500.00  ….. 527.00  …… (-40.4%)
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Growth Account Value ………………... $30,049.03
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CASH ….………………………….….… $8,166.87
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Trading and IRA Account Value ...... $82,747.21
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401K Plan - my firm, at its discretion, may match dollar for dollar up to 4% of my salary
Notes for October: stopped contributions, reallocating that money to main portfolio
Allocations
Target Retirement 30%
Fixed Income 0%
US Equity 60% (5% REITs)
International Equity 10%
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401K Account Value …...................... $118,601.16
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Total Portfolio Value ………........ $201,348.37
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SOLD POSITIONS - REALIZED GAINS/LOSSES (starting Jan 2013):
DIVIDEND GROWTH
Company ….. Date ..... Gain/Loss ……G/L %....... Reason/Result
BUD ……..10/17/13 ….. 1,336.87..….. 108.0% …. Stock moderately overvalued, selling to 0
TGH …….. 10/11/13 …..351.35. ……  11.3% …. Position does not fit criteria, will reinvest elsewhere
BUD……..  7/31/13 ….. 1,370.78 ……. 91.9% …. Reducing to 3% wgt, raised cash for SO purch
MFA …….. 6/24/13 …. 1,004.50 ……. 44.7% …. Swapping MFA into Roth IRA account
BUD……..  6/17/13 …. 1,144.36 ……. 88.0% …. Reducing overweight, buy QCOM for tech exposure
PFE……... 4/2/13 ……. 566.61 …….  83.8% …. Reducing overweight, no trade identified
T   …….... 2/19/13 …...  502.55 ……. 44.7% …. Reducing overweight, buy OXY for energey exposure
NLY …….  2/12/13 …… 73.88 ……… 5.9 % …. Reducing mREIT exposure, adding to ATRS position
GROWTH and SPECULATIVE
Company ….. Date ..... Gain/Loss ……G/L %....... Reason/Result
ATRS call …... 10/15/13  ….763.98 …. n/a…... Covered call, bot@.25, sold @.05 (yield 5.7% at purch)
ATRS call ……. 8/19/13 …. 781.98 ….. n/a …. Covered call, expired worthless (yield 4.9% at purch)
ATRS call ……. 6/22/13 …. 381.99 ….. n/a …. Covered call, expired worthless (yield 2.5% at purch)
PSTI call …….. 3/16/13 ….. 76.39 ……. n/a …. Covered call, expired worthless (yield 3.0% at purch)
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Total Cash Gains ... $8,355.24